30.5.2012

The End Of The Euro: A Survivor’s Guide

In every economic crisis there comes a moment of clarity.  In Europe soon, millions of people will wake up to realize that the euro-as-we-know-it is gone.  Economic chaos awaits them.

To understand why, first strip away your illusions.  Europe’s crisis to date is a series of supposedly “decisive” turning points that each turned out to be just another step down a steep hill.  Greece’s upcoming election on June 17 is another such moment.  While the so-called “pro-bailout” forces may prevail in terms of parliamentary seats, some form of new currency will soon flood the streets of Athens.  It is already nearly impossible to save Greek membership in the euro area: depositors flee banks, taxpayers delay tax payments, and companies postpone paying their suppliers – either because they can’t pay or because they expect soon to be able to pay in cheap drachma.

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Forget about a rescue in the form of the G20, the G8, the G7, a new European Union Treasury, the issue of Eurobonds, a large scale debt mutualisation scheme, or any other bedtime story.  We are each on our own.

Die wohl jedermann verständliche Analyse von Peter Boone and Simon Johnson der Szenarien, die momentan immer wahrscheinlicher werden, ist unbedingt lesenswert – umso mehr, als sie als Außenansicht daherkommt und klar macht, daß man es hier nicht mit den Verschwörungstheorien der letzten verbliebenen Alt-Linken oder den Ansichten einiger SPD-Opas zu tun hat.

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